Copyright 2004 Ben S. Pollock
Wednesday, Nov. 3, 2004. It is, absurdly, nearly 3 in the morning. My newsroom did not bring in boxes and boxes of mediocre pizza but decent barbecue for the Election Night crew. Unfortunately, I don’t eat meat, so the slaw and beans kept me going until I left the office and stopped by Wal-Mart for a good ol’ frozen pizza. I deserve it.
So now, sated but full of thoughts, I file this, as if some entity beside myself was publishing me and wanting it for Wednesday editions.
The tallies of several states, including Ohio, remain inconclusive. Watching CNN for another five minutes or the rest of the night won’t help. This will be drawn out for at least a day.
1) The point is that the United States as of Tuesday has fallen face first into the 21st century. 9/11/01 was only the first round. Bush’s Iraq action is the second. This week is the third and will redefine the former two and guide the next decade or so.
If Kerry wins the electoral vote it will be without the popular vote’s majority; Bush is winning that. The most that can happen after contesting provisional and other odd votes is that the election will be very close. If Kerry wins the popular vote, it’ll be by the barest of majorities. If Kerry gets to be sworn in, it will be without most of the nation behind him. 50.0000001 percent ain’t "most." Bush ran the nation without a majority vote, but Kerry?
2) Congress, both houses, will be more solidly Republican come January. Never mind Osama. Most of Kerry’s battles, and from the start, will be with Capitol Hill. Think it’ll be a cakewalk to nominate a Supreme Court justice, never mind Cabinet members? Clinton had it tough in 1993, and he had more Democrats (Nannygate, Travelgate …).
3) Kerry’s electoral map is pathetic, even if he gets the White House. His blue states were on either coast, with a sprinkle among the Upper Midwest. Imagine the rest of the world looking at TV or the Internet and seeing that sea of Bush red states. Even if they realize population centers are on the coasts, the thousand-word picture is Blue Man runs a Red Nation.
Middle America will not make it easy for a Kerry administration. The country’s bread-and-butter folk decided to be cautious.
4) Bush in a second term will not have it easy, though. Osama is waiting. Bush can only do so much. Being resolute only goes so far. How much more debt can Bush load the country with to better arm our military?
Besides, Bush will have to create some sort of draft. (If Kerry wins, he will, too.)
5) Vice President Cheney’s heart: Can it take another four years? So who does W. pick in a year? McCain? Guiliani?
6) Bush will have the GOP Congress do whatever he wants, but he will not have our strongest allies following our lead as easily as before. He hasn’t really had them in the last two years. Blair and Sharon are weakening, and the rest of west Europe, Russia and Japan won’t step in unless their own interests require it.
This is that 21st century.
It isn’t so much that the United States will have to go it alone. It’s more that the roles the country has set for itself will have their inherent contradictions (economic power, democratic example, world’s policeman) become pronounced and mutually destructive.
Maybe 2005 will be a better time for real journalism to resume. The flaccid journalism of late is partly responsible for this week. (The main reason Kerry lost (even if he wins), though, is that Republicans still are better at campaigning — its fundamentalist conservative elements force party moderates along, buying them with clout — while Democrats continue to believe in coalitions of disparate elements. Kerry didn’t flip-flop so much as the entire party did.)
In addition, the blog revolution will be seen to be as overstated as Howard Dean’s grassroots support. The bloggers were interesting, but only to those who were paying attention. Everyone else is trying to hold onto more-tenuous jobs and keep their teenagers from going to war; they didn’t take time to blame Bush for all that. But blogs and cable TV "news" being influential? The truth lies in the ballots.
News media outlets will have to resume showing Americans the truth. I don’t know if there’s money in that, though. If journalists don’t, then the Internet’s bloggers may yet have a chance to redeem themselves.
We’ll need it.
Maybe 2005 will create a marketable need for lots of real humor, real satire in America.
We’ll need it. -30-
